Will India Witness a 3rd Wave of Covid? Here's What the Experts Say

As India braves a deadly second wave of Covid-19 infections, many have raised the possibility of a third wave of the pandemic to follow. From Germany to Canada, numerous countries have already experienced a third, and even fourth wave of Coronavirus infections earlier this year, leading to mutations and new variants that increase the risk of infections. “The spread of the variants is driving this increase. But so is the opening of society when it is not done in a safe and a controlled manner,” Hans Kluge, the WHO’s Europe director, said.

As we reel in the aftermath of the ongoing second wave, is the third wave, then, inevitable? Can we do anything to contain it? When is it likely to hit? Here is how the experts weigh in. 

A Third Wave is Likely to Come

When Cosmo India spoke to Dr Chandrashekhar T, Chief Intensivist, Fortis Hiranandani Hospital, Vashi, he had this to say. "India is still reeling under the pressure of the second wave of Covid-19. There has been data that foretells the coming of an imminent third wave somewhere in the month of October. I look at the situation as this. COVID has certainly taken us by the storm. Given the current complexity of our crisis, with variants of Sars-CoV-2 clouding the calculus and the weakening of our healthcare system, I see this as a ripple effect of the current crisis."

According to K VijayRaghavan, the principal scientific adviser to the Indian government the high levels of the virus circulating in India meant “A phase 3 is inevitable” but he could not give a timeline at this stage. He explained in a briefing last week that there was a high likelihood of new variants emerging in India in the future, which may be more “immune evasive” and transmissible, and that even after this second wave had plateaued, strong disease surveillance and Covid safety measures should remain in place in India.

Others have predicted a more concrete timeline of the event. "Mostly in the winter, sometime in the end of November or early December (this year). Ensuring that all the vulnerable are vaccinated before the festive season of Diwali is important to save as many lives," said Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and professor at the Indian Institute of Public Health in Bengaluru, and a member and advisor to the National Covid-19 Task Force in Karnataka. "The next wave will affect mostly younger age groups," he warns.

What Can be Done to Prevent This? 

Given the destruction wrought by the ongoing second wave, it is urgent that we do our best to prepare for and try and prevent a third. What then, can be done? 

According to Dr Sandeep Gore, Director-Emergency Medicine, Fortis Hospital, Mulund, an accelerated vaccination drive is the only solution."If we don't finish vaccinating most of the population in next two to three months," shares Dr Gore, "India may witness a third wave. Vaccination in all age groups is the only key to prevent the third wave. Currently, the pace of vaccination is relatively slow in India as compared to the western world; if we don't accelerate, then the third wave is inevitable, close to September."

"It is high time to accelerate vaccination drive in our country," he emphasises. "This can be done by increasing production of vaccines in India, and by liberally importing all available vaccines from other countries, like Pfizer, Sputnik, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson."

"We can call it second or third wave, whatever we feel like, but the truth is that India's healthcare system needs to get back on its feet, strengthen its arms, and brace of any forthcoming crisis," agrees Dr Chandrashekhar. "We will need to speed up our vaccination process and ensure that there is no halt to it. A halt to the vaccination drive can leave a hard-hitting impact on our national health."

Quotes by K VijayRaghavan and Dr Giridhar Babu Courtesy: India Today and The Guardian